Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.211957 3.865740 4.596480 5.470501 6.484007 7.618699 8.981484
2025-03-23 2.256825 3.124824 4.211958 5.657642 7.511722 9.790235 12.780007
2025-03-30 1.624599 2.548889 3.827598 5.687676 8.278847 11.708933 16.530488
2025-04-06 1.208984 2.124526 3.508428 5.684226 8.934285 13.508530 20.306158
2025-04-13 0.921138 1.798380 3.235981 5.658162 9.502887 15.204748 24.083099
2025-04-20 0.798490 1.703088 3.287971 6.112251 10.817007 18.085700 29.818824
2025-04-27 0.663438 1.545616 3.196208 6.301136 11.716114 20.408861 34.916512
2025-05-04 0.565397 1.430649 3.150771 6.549209 12.723810 22.976597 40.593115
2025-05-11 0.460446 1.270243 2.983984 6.542517 13.278095 24.841854 45.284629
2025-05-18 0.357998 1.083250 2.722527 6.306337 13.378975 25.936792 48.777001
2025-05-25 0.272165 0.907191 2.443219 5.980904 13.259200 26.617517 51.597018
2025-06-01 0.220011 0.801090 2.294904 5.897426 13.582791 28.096757 55.888085
2025-06-08 0.173547 0.695979 2.129930 5.760654 13.805003 29.451730 60.148589
2025-06-15 0.155942 0.673967 2.168666 6.094324 15.040223 32.822503 68.333875
2025-06-22 0.131151 0.618149 2.105805 6.177466 15.751503 35.244687 74.939258
2025-06-29 0.108482 0.559733 2.021374 6.192442 16.312893 37.415472 81.221646
2025-07-06 0.088942 0.503742 1.929449 6.171164 16.786798 39.444111 87.365445
2025-07-13 0.084596 0.509392 2.026669 6.662927 18.496223 44.126225 98.974034
2025-07-20 0.074286 0.483690 2.018561 6.867329 19.547591 47.512846 108.223162
2025-07-27 0.066462 0.465885 2.032345 7.134797 20.777737 51.363061 118.626869
2025-08-03 0.055276 0.424609 1.955003 7.127728 21.330537 53.797183 126.300941
2025-08-10 0.042809 0.367452 1.803697 6.873466 21.229309 54.790714 131.067142
2025-08-17 0.031925 0.310191 1.632488 6.522907 20.831937 55.084564 134.377057